Anticipation over Nawaz joining the four-term Prime Minister elite group; Garment sector in Pakistan faces challenges, says PACRA Report
In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2023
PR Exclusive Update 33
A fair level playing field needed: Dawn editorial
On 28 December, according to an editorial in Dawn titled ‘A level pitch’, any democratic system must have credible elections to be in good working order. But it has always been difficult to run timely, fair, and cost-free polls throughout the electoral history. The PPP, the PML-N, and the National Awami Party have all faced setbacks in previous decades; now, it is the PTI's turn to encounter the wrath of the ruling class. The PTI has asserted since 9 May that the government is erasing its political existence, and there is ample evidence to back up these claims. The ECP's rejection of the PTI's intra-party polls and denial of the bat electoral symbol were two of the worst setbacks to the previous ruling party. By suspending the ECP's ruling on 26 December 2023, the Peshawar High Court effectively gave the PTI back control of the situation for the time being. The order won't leave the field until 9 January. Henceforth, all parties should be permitted to freely campaign for the polls, and this democratic process deceit must end. Additionally, there should be no violence or intimidation during election campaigns or on polling day. ( “A level pitch,” Dawn, 28 December 2023)
PML-N welcomes PPP leader Faisal Saleh Hayat
On 27 December 2023, PPP's veteran Makhdoom Faisal Saleh Hayat joined his longtime rival PML-N. Given the declining party support, Hayat, who spent nearly his entire five-decade political career opposing the Sharifs, has chosen to leave the Bhutto party. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif said: “We welcome and thank Makhdoom sahib and his supporters for joining the party. We hope his inclusion will strengthen PML-N in Jhang and Chiniot.” Hayat informed reporters that he had chosen to join the PML-N after conferring with voters in his area. (Tariq Saeed, “Faisal Saleh Hayat joins PML-N,” Dawn, 28 December 2023)
PML-N requests public feedback on its election manifesto
On 27 December, according to The Express Tribune, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) has launched an online platform to allow Pakistanis living in the country and those living overseas to provide feedback on its platform before the general elections scheduled for 8 February. The party led by Nawaz Sharif, has extended an invitation for suggestions for the party's 2024 election manifesto to professionals, experts, Pakistanis living abroad, and residents. Over thirty-two themes are covered by the portal: national heritage, culture and films, infrastructure development and transportation, the supremacy of the constitution, initiatives for special persons, labor, manpower, and peasants; women's empowerment; energy; education; health; sports; foreign affairs; agriculture; human rights and minorities; youth affairs; national heritage, culture, and films; and youth affairs. PML-N Senior Vice President and Chief Organiser Maryam Nawaz stated, “PML-N’s unbreakable bond with the people is its greatest strength! We’re excited to take this cornerstone of our politics into the digital age with an online portal that empowers every Pakistani, resident and overseas, to directly contribute to writing PML-N’s Election Manifesto 2024”. ( “PML-N seeks public input for election manifesto,” The Express Tribune, 27 December 2023)
Experts differ on the Supreme Court's response to ECP's planned appeal
On 28 December, according to Dawn, the PTI and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) are currently embroiled in controversy, and the ECP is appealing to the Supreme Court. In the meantime, experts differ on the Supreme Court's likely response to ECP's planned appeal of the high court's decision to reinstate PTI's symbol. This is due to the earlier decision of the ECP to deprive the PTI of the symbol of not adhering to the Elections Act. A former ECP secretary, Kanwar Dilshad, endorsed the decision, stating that because PTI was unable to provide evidence of the financing source and that ECP was permitted to remove the "bat" sign. In contrast, legal and constitutional experts, including former High Court judge, Justice Syed Shabbar Raza Rizvi, proclaim that such reasons could not guarantee the loss of the party symbol. ECP sources stated that the PTI is accused of violating Section 209 of the Elections Act, 2017 concerning intra-party polls, which is why the commission refused to award the party the "bat" emblem. Adding to this, they claimed that out of 175 political parties, 27 parties’ symbols were withheld by the ECP, and PTI was not the only one affected. (Malik Asad, “Analysis: Will SC step in to undo PTI relief?,” Dawn, 28 December 2023)
Anticipation over Nawaz joining the four-term Prime Minister elite group
On 28 December, according to The News International, the rare feat of being elected Prime Minister four times made Nawaz the clear favorite of those elite groups. Only a handful of politicians have achieved this, including Sheikh Hasina Wajid of Bangladesh, who won her fourth term in 2018, Robert Fico of Slovakia in October 2023, Silvio Berlusconi of Italy, William Ewart Gladstone of Britain, and William Lyon Mackenzie King of Canada. (Sabir Shah, “Will Nawaz be among four-timed world premiers?” The News International, 28 December 2023)
PTI Vice Chairman Qureshi was arrested again
On 27 December, Vice Chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Shah Mehmood Qureshi was taken by Punjab police from prison following his release from Adiala Jail. This was to a case involving the attack on the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi on 9 May. The police first took the former foreign minister to the Cantt police station, where they mistreated him and forced him into a patrol car that was parked outside the jail. Pointing to a police officer, Qureshi said that if there was any illegal conduct or if the police attempted to arrest him, he would take him to the Supreme Court. He said, “The rulers violated the order of the apex court and are arresting me again in a false case. I represent the nation. I am innocent and I am being targeted for vendetta without any reason.” Meanwhile, the daughter of Qureshi Mehr Bano Qureshi, has petitioned the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) regarding her father's purported incarceration. She said that her father had not disclosed his whereabouts to the family while he was unlawfully detained. (Mohammad Asghar and Kalbe Ali, “Outrage after Qureshi manhandled, whisked away in yet another case,” Dawn, 28 December 2023 ;“Qureshi manhandled, bundled into police van after release,” The News International, 28 December 2023)
ECONOMY
Reforms needed in economic policies: The World Bank
On 28 December, according to the latest United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) publication titled Policy Vision, World Bank Country Director Najy Benhassine stated, “There is a broad consensus that action is needed to change policies that have plagued development, benefitted only a few, and led to very volatile and low growth.” He mentioned that Pakistan is heavily exposed to climate change, which has devastating impacts. He insisted that the policy failures in the agriculture, food, and energy sectors should be addressed. He added, “The question is whether those with power and influence will take the opportunity arising from the current crisis to do what is needed. It is time for Pakistan to come together in the interests of a brighter, more prosperous, and more sustainable future.” Probing ahead, he said, improvements in fiscal development are needed. Unsustainable debt servicing costs and revenue mobilization are the contributors to low investment in human development, and it is stressed that stronger economic growth is required to promote the living standard of the country. (Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan’s current economic model is not working: World Bank,” Dawn, 28 December 2023)
PIA: Financial constraints reduce the operations
On 28 December, according to Dawn, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) showed a reduction in operating fleets, with only 15 of its 29 aircraft in service now. This reduction is cited by the financial constraints the country faces, which prevent PIA from buying the required spare parts. At present, PIA’s operational fleet comprises six Boeing 777 wide-body twin-engine airplanes, eight Airbus A320 narrow-body jets for short or medium-haul routes, and one ATR aircraft, which is valuable due to its access to remote destinations. Airbus A320 aircraft were stranded in Indonesia, referring to the lease dispute over adding fuel to PIA. However, one of them was reintegrated in October. The PIA spokesperson stated, “With the government’s help, we hope to secure some crucial funding that will revive most of PIA’s fleet.” In addition, PIA operations were also hindered due to climatic actions like heavy fog and low visibility on the routes from and to Lahore, Multan, and Sialkot. (“PIA operating with half its fleet amid financial woes,” Dawn, 28 December 2023)
Garment sector in Pakistan faces challenges, says PACRA Report
On 28 December, according to The News International, the Pakistan Credit Rating Agency (PACRA), rising petrol prices and the removal of energy subsidies as part of the IMF programme are putting pressure on Pakistan's garment industry, which is a major driver of the country's exports and GDP. The sector's margins and competitiveness are in jeopardy due to the recent increase in petrol tariffs that took effect in November 2023 and drove petrol prices to USD 10.3 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU), the highest in the area. It's expected that the IMF's structural reforms, which include higher energy tariffs, will make exports less competitive on a worldwide scale. Even with its 3.0 per cent GDP contribution in FY23, the apparel industry is facing difficulties; supply chain interruptions have caused a 14.6 per cent decline in textile exports. It is anticipated that the industry's margins will continue to be restricted due to factors including increased cotton production and the elimination of subsidies, which are required by the IMF directives. (“Garment sector faces pressure from rising energy costs, IMF programme: PACRA, The News International, 28 December 2023)
The Pakistani currency faces continued pressure, says a report in the News
On 28 December, A report in The News International revealed that the future of Pakistan's currency remains bleak, as the country faces rising pressures. Due to the high level of external debt, the depletion of foreign reserves, and the anticipated monetary relaxation, the currency is expected to depreciate even more in 2024. Twenty per cent decline versus the USD is anticipated by analysts for 2023, which will be greater than the average yearly declines of the previous ten years. The problems facing the rupee are a result of political unpredictability, uncertainty in the world economy, and a substantial shortfall in foreign funding. Interest rate reductions are expected in the upcoming year, with inflation expected to reach an astounding 28.6 per cent between July and November of 2024. Forecasts indicate that by June 2024, the rupee may depreciate to 310 versus the USD due to impending debt obligations. While the State Bank of Pakistan and the interim government's actions initially stabilized the interbank rate, there are still however persisting challenges thereby making the rupee weak. (“Rupee outlook dims as Pakistan struggles with debt, inflation, politics, The News International, 28 December 2023)
SECURITY
The Fatah-II rocket test
On 27 December, Dawn reported that Pakistan successfully tested the Fatah-II guided multiple-launch rocket system in the air demonstrating the device's capacity to pose a serious threat to local missile defence systems. The latest avionics, advanced navigation systems, and a distinct flight path are just a few of the cutting-edge characteristics of the Fatah-II that were emphasised by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR). The rocket is notable for its sophisticated precision-targeting system, which combines inertial and satellite navigation for exceptional accuracy with a circular probable error (CEP) of less than ten metres. The Fatah-II outperforms the Fatah-I with a 400-kilometre range, and its unusual flight path gives it an advantage over countermeasures. Pakistan's military strength is greatly enhanced by this strategic development, which improves terrestrial strike skills for accurate and adaptable long-range strikes. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Pakistan conducts flight test of Fatah-II rocket, Dawn, 28 December 2023)
Increased Suicide attacks call for better counterterrorism measures
On 27 December, The Express Tribune reported an alarming increase in suicide attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist groups, reaching the highest level since 2014. The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies reports that as of now, 29 attacks have resulted in 329 fatalities and 582 injuries. This represents an alarming 90 per cent increase in attacks, tripling the number of fatalities and doubling the number of injuries. Notably, security personnel accounted for almost half of the deaths, highlighting how susceptible civilians are. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was the hardest hit, accounting for more than half of all attacks and 75 per cent of fatalities. The ominous increase signals a resurgent and worrisome danger from terrorism. The importance of taking a firm position against terrorists is emphasized to prevent further escalation and protect communities from the destructive effects of violence. (“Surge in suicide attacks, The Express Tribune, 27 December 2023)
JUDICIARY
Supreme Court holds in historic ruling, stressing Parliamentary powers
On 28 December, according to Dawn, the Supreme Court of Pakistan reaffirmed that the Chief Justice is not the "Master of the Roster" and cannot determine cases unilaterally, emphasizing that authority should not be concentrated in one person. The 22-page ruling was written by Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, who said that the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Act 2023, which was passed by Parliament, did not infringe on fundamental rights but rather made it easier for them to be enforced. It was decided that the phrase "Master of the Roster" was derogatory and unsupported by the Constitution. The ruling made it clear that parliamentary legislation should only be intervened in when it is unlawful. On a separate note, Justice Yahya Afridi disputed Section 5 of the Act, arguing it went beyond the authority of the legislature. Further, he asked Parliament to reexamine Section 2, highlighting open standards for the make-up of the bench and the distribution of cases about political issues. (Nasir Iqbal, “Chief justice is not ‘master of roster’: SC, Dawn, 28 December 2023)
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“PTI will be in the election at all costs. It is the largest political party in Pakistan, and Imran Khan is the most towering political leader of Pakistan. This culture of political engineering must end, once and for all.”
-Taimur Saleem Khan Jhagra
“The brave men of the Pakistan Army should always be honored for their sacrifice.”
- Zareef Gichki
“The benefits of economic growth in Pakistan are limited to the elite only”
-Muneeb Marwat
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Khurram Husain, ‘Uncertainty ahead’
Dawn, 28 December 2023
“The year 2024 is when a new window of opportunity will open to reckon with all the ailments that brought us to this pass. But for that to happen, an elected government needs to enter, on time, and without the allegations of rigging that are already mounting with each passing day. No economic recovery is possible without a credible government in place. This is easy enough to see and those who think that the present moment of stability represents an economic recovery need to understand their mistake. The economy came near default in the year 2023. But it rapidly pulled back from the brink in July once the Stand-by Arrangement with the IMF began. The massive price adjustments undertaken under that programme saw the price of electricity skyrocket, nearly doubling for some category of consumers, followed by the price of gas.”
Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, ‘Changing political climate’
Dawn, 28 December 2023
“Perhaps the most important takeaway from the climate summit in the UAE was the engagement of young boys and girls from almost a dozen youth groups representing Pakistan’s different regions. Each group focused on specific concerns of interest to them in their respective areas. They engaged with each other, their international counterparts, and with the Pakistani Pavilion, arguing passionately about their views on how to make Pakistan a climate-resilient, prosperous, and socially cohesive country. They were the finest young minds reflecting Pakistan’s promised energy and vibrancy. They represented 18 per cent or about 22 million new voters that have been added to the electoral rolls since the 2018 elections. It is estimated that voters from the ages 18 to 35 years will constitute 45pc of the electoral college on polling day in February. Yet, they were mostly political orphans as none of the mainstream political parties have shown any serious interest to listen to them or to weave their ambitions and aspirations into party platforms and manifestos.”
Husain Haqqani, ‘Democracy beyond elections’
The News International, 28 December, 2023
“Elections are an integral part of democracy. But even a free and fair election is not the only factor that makes a country a liberal democracy. In an essay published in the journal ‘Foreign Affairs,’ in 1997, Indian-American journalist Fareed Zakaria had noted the rise of illiberal democracy around the world. “Democratically elected regimes”, Zakaria wrote, “are routinely ignoring constitutional limits on their power and depriving their citizens of basic rights and freedoms.” According to Zakaria, in the West (where modern democratic republics evolved) “democracy has meant liberal democracy – a political system marked not only by free and fair elections, but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property.” But in many countries around the world, from Hungary to Venezuela, elected leaders have gone on to dismantle constitutional limitations on their power and imposed elected dictatorships”
Kamila Hyat, ‘The year through the haze’
The News International, 28 December, 2023
“This year that has almost gone by has brought with it many events which are seen as insignificant in the eyes of websites and organizations that document these events. In Punjab, the smog which has descended over many parts of the province leaves people looking out into a permanent sea of grey which sometimes allows in small rays of sunshine but there is nothing to end the pollution that has already become a major health hazard in the province. But as we move beyond the central Punjab, and particularly beyond Lahore and Sheikhupura, the smog lifts to let us think back on events of various kinds in 2023. The most significant of these is perhaps the lead-up to the next election, the appointment of Anwaarul Haq Kakar as caretaker prime minister, and the taking over by Justice Qazi Faez Isa as the chief justice of the Supreme Court. But with these events, we have others such as the many audio recordings that have surfaced this year and left judges asking who is making these invasions into the privacy of homes and sometimes bedrooms. We also have a series of cases against Imran Khan who for now almost stands ousted from the next election and whose party has effectively been disbanded by the very forces which first created it.”
Zalmay Azad, ‘The Baloch Need Compassion, Not Repression’
The Friday Times, 27 December, 2023
“In the midst of a nation immersed in the fervor of election anticipation, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the legitimacy and fairness of the impending electoral process. Questions linger in the air, casting doubt on whether the elections will truly be free and impartial or merely a charade, with the outcome predetermined by influential figures. It raises concerns about the futility of investing both time and resources in an electoral system that may seem preordained. Amidst these uncertainties, a poignant journey unfolded as a convoy of women, children, and elderly individuals embarked on a solemn pilgrimage from Turbat, Baluchistan, to the heart of the nation in Islamabad. Contrary to the typical election-related activities that captivate the public's attention, this journey was not aimed at garnering support for political candidates in the upcoming elections. Instead, it bore witness to a deeply personal quest, a quest for information about the whereabouts of their loved ones who had mysteriously disappeared years ago.”
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“Year 2024 is when a new window of opportunity will open to reckon with all ailments that brought us to this pass.”
– An opinion in Dawn, ‘Uncertainty ahead’
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